Job Description

Job Category: Academic
:
Grade UE07: 40,497 - 48,149 per annum
CSE/School of Mathematics
Full-time: 35 hours/week
Fixed Term: 3 years, from 1 September 2025, or by mutual agreement
We are looking to appoint a Postdoctoral Research Associate to join us in an ambitious and high-impact climate research project funded by the UK's prestigious new Advanced Research + Invention Agency (ARIA). The PROTECT project (Probabilistic Forecasting of Climate Tipping Points) brings together cutting-edge AI, statistical, and machine learning techniques with climate modelling, aiming to transform our understanding and prediction of climate tipping points.
We welcome candidates with expertise in climate modelling, ideally including experience with General Circulation Models (GCMs), Earth System Models, or related simulation tools. Additional knowledge of statistical methods, Monte Carlo techniques, or ensemble approaches is highly valued.
The post is advertised as full-time. We are open to hybrid working arrangements (on a non-contractual basis), combining on-campus and remote work.
The Opportunity:
The successful applicant will join a cross-disciplinary team working at the interface of climate science, statistical methodology, and computational modelling. The PROTECT project is part of the ARIA-funded programme on climate tipping points and aims to improve the scientific and statistical foundations of ensemble-based forecasting in climate models, mostly in general circulation models (GCMs).
You will work with the PI of the project (Prof. Victor Elvira) and collaborate with other ARIA projects. You will contribute to the following areas:

• Review and benchmark datasets used for initialization, calibration, and validation of GCMs, identifying sources of uncertainty and quantifying their impact.
• Work closely with ARIA collaborators to select appropriate GCMs or Earth System Models (e.g., CESM2, MPI-ESM, NEMO), with a focus on models relevant to AMOC and the North Atlantic.
• Develop and implement probabilistic ensemble techniques to improve uncertainty representation in climate simulations.
• Apply and validate Monte Carlo methods (e.g., importance sampling and other rare-event estimation methods) for the detection and probabilistic characterization of climate tipping points.
• Coordinate with other ARIA teams to ensure compatibility and reproducibility of methods, particularly within a shared definition and detection framework for tipping points.
• Contribute to the design of scalable and interpretable forecasting strategies for large climate simulators, integrating adaptive sampling and Bayesian techniques.
• Disseminate results in peer-reviewed publications and contribute to open-source codebases and documentation.
• Participate in the integration and delivery of a final modular framework for uncertainty-aware probabilistic forecasting, with the potential for policy relevance.

Applicants should have (or be close to obtaining) a PhD in climate science, climate modelling, geophysical fluid dynamics, or a closely related field. Experience with uncertainty-aware simulation or familiarity with statistical tools is desirable but not strictly required. Strong candidates from physical climate modelling will be seriously considered.
Your skills and attributes for success:

• Experience with climate simulation models. Ideally, experience includes running general circulation models (GCMs), Earth system models, or similar simulation tools. However, training opportunities (e.g., via NCAS) are available for motivated candidates.
• Interest in probabilistic methods, ensemble simulations, or uncertainty quantification; experience is appreciated
• Ability to engage with interdisciplinary teams involving statisticians, computer scientists, and climate experts
• Programming experience in a scientific computing language (e.g., Python, Fortran, MATLAB)
• Excellent communication skills, both written and oral

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Application Information:
Applicants should upload a CV and a brief research statement (max two pages) when applying for the post online. In addition, they should arrange for at least two letters of reference to be sent direct to quoting the reference number 12608 in advance of the closing date. For informal enquiries please contact Prof Victor Elvira: .
As a valued member of our team you can expect:

• A competitive salary.
• An exciting, positive, creative, challenging and rewarding place to work.
• To be part of a diverse and vibrant international community.
• Comprehensive Staff Benefits, such as a generous holiday entitlement, competitive pension schemes, staff discounts, and family-friendly initiatives. Check out the full list on our

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Championing equality, diversity and inclusion
The University of Edinburgh holds a Silver Athena SWAN award in recognition of our commitment to advance gender equality in higher education. We are members of the Race Equality Charter and we are also Stonewall Scotland Diversity Champions, actively promoting LGBT equality.
Prior to any employment commencing with the University you will be required to evidence your right to work in the UK. Further information is available on our (opens new browser tab).
The University is able to sponsor the employment of international workers in this role. If successful, an international applicant requiring sponsorship to work in the UK will need to satisfy the UK Home Office's English Language requirements and apply for and secure a Skilled Worker Visa.
Key dates to note:
The closing date for applications is 4 July 2025
Unless stated otherwise the closing time for applications is 11:59pm GMT. If you are applying outside the UK the closing time on our adverts automatically adjusts to your browsers local time zone.
Interviews will be held in the week starting from 14 July in an online manner.
About Us: As a world-leading research-intensive University, we are here to address tomorrow's greatest challenges. Between now and 2030 we will do that with a values-led approach to teaching, research and innovation, and through the strength of our relationships, both locally and globally.
About the Team:
The School of Mathematics
The University of Edinburgh's School of Mathematics is one of the world's leading mathematical sciences departments, home to world-class researchers and to an innovative educational environment for both undergraduates and postgraduates. We are proud to have a highly international faculty and students from around the world. As a School we value both the breadth and depth of our research and teaching.
We have around 110 permanent faculty and around 45 research fellows and research associates, who cover a broad range of research topics in pure and applied mathematics, operational research and statistics. The School has an enviable record of attracting prestigious fellowships and currently hosts, for instance, 6 ERC grant holders and 7 Royal Society University Research and Dorothy Hodgkin Fellows. In the 2023 Shanghai Global Ranking of Academic Subjects we are ranked 18th among the world's best Mathematics departments. Together with the Departments of Mathematics and Actuarial Mathematics & Statistics at Heriot-Watt University, we form the Maxwell Institute; our joint submission to REF2021was ranked 3rd in the UK for Mathematical Sciences by research power, based on the quality and breadth of our combined research.
The School delivers a world-leading educational experience for its students and is constantly exploring new evidence-based ideas in mathematical education in order to provide a stimulating learning environment. There are excellent possibilities for imaginative curriculum development, including online activities, and course design and delivery. The School teaches pure and applied Mathematics, operational research and statistics. We have approximately 1000 undergraduate students, around 210 MSc students, and our Graduate School has close to 160 PhD students.
Edinburgh is home to the International Centre for Mathematical Sciences, one of the UK's two major conference centres in the mathematical sciences and operated jointly by the University with Heriot-Watt University. Over the past 30 years the centre has established a superb reputation for hosting workshops at the highest scientific level on all mathematical topics, attracting many of the best mathematicians in the world to the UK.
The School is located in the James Clerk Maxwell Building which is situated on the King's Buildings campus, approximately 3 kilometres south of the city centre.
Further information about the School, our research and our teaching is available on the ( ) (Opens in new browser tab)